The Nov. 3 presidential results for Yolo County were never in question. The county is overwhelmingly Democratic, and Joe Biden won nearly 70% of the county’s vote. Even if you break the county up into its four incorporated cities and the unincorporated portions of the supervisory districts (see below), Trump won a majority of the vote in only the smallest of these nine subdivisions – the tiny unincorporated portion of District 1 south of West Sacramento.
But as with most post-2020 election analysis, the most interesting demographic data came from the March primary. Specifically the Democratic presidential nominating race. There, 55.3% of Yolo County voters who pulled a Democratic presidential ballot chose either of the two main Progressive candidates: Bernie Sanders (38%) or Elizabeth Warrens (17.3%).
The Sacto Politico calls this combined figure the S+W Benchmark, which is the strongest reflection of the size of the Progressive voting base in any voting territory. In fact, Yolo County featured the 6th highest S+W among California’s 58 counties behind such large liberal bastions as Alameda, San Francisco and Santa Cruz counties.
However, most of Yolo County falls in John Garamendi’s 3rd Congressional District, and with just 119,000 registered voters (as compared to Sacramento County’s 884,000), Yolo comprises just 22% of all registered voters in the CA-3. Since the rest of the district’s Democratic base has a much more moderate S+W of 28.4%, this brings the CA-3 down to an overall S+W of 46.3%. This means it would be challenging – but not impossible – for a Progressive to attempt to dislodge the 75-year-old Garamendi in 2022.
But even a failed 2022 campaign would establish the name recognition needed for a strong 2024 battle when Garamendi will be approaching 80 and perhaps ready to retire. Such a marathon effort is what is required to translate Progressives’ superior numbers locally and nationally into true legislative power in D.C.
Here is the Yolo County breakdown. For a similar Sacramento County breakdown, visit here.